Harper's Path Toward the Slaughterhouse

Stand Up For Canada Means Harper Will Blow It Again.

2006-01-21T07:07:00.000-08:00

Day 73 - Stephen Harper is campaigning hard in the dying days of this campaign. But Mr. Harper will not win this election for primarily two (2) reasons: his mind numbing error in stating that the Liberal Senate, "Liberal" public service and Liberal-appointed judges would act as a natural check on his incoming government. He is basically telling voters to take a chance on him because others will ensure that he cannot implement his political agenda! Secondly, Mr. Harper's failure to join Mr. Martin in eliminating the future use of the notwithstanding clause as it relates to Charter rights.

Prediction time: Nationally, factoring in the 10% who are undecided, the Conservatives will get 39% of the vote, the Liberals 37% and the New Democrats 16%. In Ontario, where 14% of voters are undecided, the LPC will get 42%, the CPC 38% and the NDP 29%. This will allow the Liberals to get enough Ontario seats to form a minority government. In Quebec, the undecided are pegged at 21%. The Bloc Québécois could receive up to 60%, the Conservatives 31% and the Liberals 17%. The CPC will finish a strong second in a handful of ridings but will not take a seat in Quebec.

Harper Makes Three Mistakes In One Day.

2006-01-08T06:29:00.000-08:00

Day 60 - Yesterday was not exactly Stephen Harper's best campaign day. With the exception of the latest Ekos poll which puts the CPC six points ahead, the other polls indicate that this race is a "statistical" tie.

Mistake number one: Mr. Harper said he would repeal the recently passed Liberal tax cuts for low and middle income Canadians if he forms a government. Now that's a headline only a Liberal can love. He says our tax cuts are bigger but then fails to unveil our tax package. Strategists claim it will come next week because it has to be properly costed! If that is indeed the case, why did Mr. Harper comment on the Liberal tax cuts? Couldn't he see what impression he would leave with the voters? The tax cuts proposal should be made public NOW to contain the political damage.

Mistake number two: When recently asked if he felt frustrated that the Conservatives seem unlikely to form a majority government, Mr. Harper responded that Canadians had before them a variety of electoral options, or as he said, "any range of outcome is possible". In other words, he was suggesting that a majority was a possibility. Again, a fundamental error. The Liberals will do everything they can to promote a stampede effect to "stop Harper". Mr. Harper should have said that he hoped Canadians would give him an electoral mandate to form the next government and left it at that.

Mistake number three: Option Canada: a gift from the Chrétien wing of the Liberal Party. Over 4.8 million dollars was spent by the subsidiary of the Council on Canadian Unity on Quebec referendum activities in 1995. It is alleged that roughly $300,000 remains unaccounted for. The RCMP has confirmed that it is on a "fact-finding" mission but that they have not begun a formal investigation.

The Quebec Directeur général des élections was forced to abandon their initial investigation when the Supreme Court ruled that Option Canada was not required to respond to their request for information. One presumes that Option Canada was either headquartered outside Quebec or was beyond the powers reserved under provincial jurisdiction. In spite of this, the provincial organization has once again opened an investigation.

Mr. Harper should be demanding that Elections Canada look into this. Quite obviously, if provincial electoral officials do not have jurisdiction, Elections Canada has the authority to look into how this federal money was spent during the Quebec referendum campaign. He should be writing the Chief Electoral Officer, Jean-Pierre Kingsley, to insist that an investigation be initiated as soon as possible.

The Race Tightens.

2006-01-01T10:54:00.000-08:00

Day 53 - It's Déjà-Vu all over again... Three weeks from the finish line and the race has tightened. No surprise there. Just think back to the last election. The latest CPAC - SES Nightly Tracking Poll puts the Liberals at 35%, the Conservatives right behind with 34% and the New Democrats at 14%. The Bloc Québécois is supported by 13% and the Green Party by 5% of respondents.

Meanwhile, a Decima Poll shows the LPC with 32%, the CPC with 30% while the NDP is pegged at 18% and the BQ at 14%. The Liberal lead in Ontario has shrunk to 4 points, 40 - 36% over the Conservatives.

It remains to be seen whether the RCMP Income Trust investigation will gain traction. Also look for very large proposed tax cuts from our party, probably in the coming week. If they are too heavily weighted in favour of corporate tax cuts, they will work against Mr. Harper's campaign. Can't wait to see what kind of rabbit we will pull out of the hat.

NEWSFLASH: Harper To Take London, Ontario By Storm!

2005-12-18T11:59:00.000-08:00

Day 39 - Poor Stephen Harper. His campaign is turning into a political joke. He talks of forming a minority government -- totally oblivious to the fact that our party hasn't a hope in hell of forming the next government. Sure, Mr. Harper can legitimately say that we are making inroads in Ontario. Our problem is that we are taking southwestern Ontario by storm. The rest of Ontario, not to mention most of the rest of the country, wants absolutely nothing to do with Mr. Harper and his policies. We will no doubt increase our vote and perhaps our seats in Alberta, Saskatchewan and Manitoba but that is about it. British Columbia is lost to us and Quebec was never within our reach. We will fail to win a single seat there. The Liberals have Atlantic Canada locked up.

Mr. Harper said recently on his campaign plane that "you can be principled without being stupid". He should really take his own advice. He trotted out the same-sex marriage issue at the start of the campaign and it has persistently dogged him ever since. It has turned Paul Martin into the champion of the Charter of Rights and Freedoms and the protector of minority rights. Nice job Mr. Harper. Mr. Martin now has the audacity to say that Mr. Harper is unfit to be prime minister. Too bad most Canadians agree with that perception.

Mr. Harper will argue that a Léger/Sun Media poll revealed that 55% of Canadians support a free-vote on the traditional definition of marriage. Big deal. You can't turn back the clock politically. Even if we formed a government, which is almost an impossibility, the Supreme Court would never let such a vote stand. Mr. Harper would have to invoke the notwithstanding clause to get his way. His pledge in both language debates that he would not do so would quickly fall by the wayside.

But, we will never get there. In that same poll, 86% of respondents said that the marriage question will not change how they will vote on January 23rd. That is very bad news for Mr. Harper. He may have held his own in the first English-language debate but he blew the first French-language debate big time. How can one expect Quebecers and other francophones to relate to, much less vote for a man who twice had to tell the moderator that he did not understand the question! I can just picture Lawrence Cannon and Josée Verner each taking a bathroom break to vomit.

Mr. Harper may well win big in the Ontario "bible-belt" but he hasn't got a prayer in British Columbia, Quebec, the Atlantic Provinces or the rest of Ontario. Might as well have the staff at Stornoway start the packing right away...

Christmas Comes Early for the Liberal Party of Canada.

2005-12-11T10:15:00.000-08:00

Day 32 - What a simply wonderful early Christmas present for the Liberals. Mike King is reporting on the Hounds of War Blog that campaign genius Tom Flanagan has once again come on board in an attempt to "right" the Conservative ship. That should be just about enough to sink us for good. Apparently, Mr. Flanagan is already quarreling with campaign co-chair John Reynolds and he just crossed the threshold.

Why Mr. Harper, the epitome of Darth Vader, has chosen the genuine article to take over strategy is beyond me. Quite obviously, Stephen Harper has learned nothing since he became leader of our party. Mr. Harper may scare some people. Mr. Flanagan terrifies most people. This will be one hell of a Conservative rout. Not even "income trusts" can save Mr. Harper now.

First Impressions Can Be Deadly.

2005-12-07T05:53:00.000-08:00

Day 28 - The curse of first impressions. In political life, one can make the argument that if a politician debuts on the national stage and strike a sour note, that bad impression is likely to haunt him or her for the rest of their political career. Take Joe Clark as an example. Widely ridiculed as "Joe Who" when he was first chosen leader of the Progressive Conservatives, Mr. Clark went on to earn the moniker of elder political statesman and decent fellow. However, that initial impression of him stuck like glue in the minds of many Canadians. He was widely perceived as having won both English-language debates but voters nonetheless re-elected Jean Chrétien in the 2000 election.

Take the case of Stephen Harper -- Canada's "Angry Man". Voters don't like him, have no desire to warm up to him and can't for the life of them bring themselves to vote for him or our party. They can try as hard as they want to make Mr. Harper warm and fuzzy but it just won't work in the end. Put simply, Mr. Harper rubs most voters the wrong way. They can't relate to him and have no confidence in him or his ideas. Mr. Harper has suffered from high negatives since the beginning of his Alliance Party leadership. Canadians may come to respect him but they will never love Mr. Harper, the way they adored (and hated) those two (2) charismatic and polarizing figures Pierre Trudeau and Brian Mulroney.

Belinda Stronach is another perfect example. She launched an attack on Mr. Harper yesterday. She says Mr. Harper is a political opportunist who put Canadian unity in danger by going to any lengths to sink the then Liberal minority government. Ms. Stronach argues that Mr. Harper only cares about grabbing power. Ms. Stronach is another politician who made a dubious first impression with the Canadian people. (Full disclosure: I supported Ms. Stronach's leadership bid for leader of the CPC.) Ms. Stronach was seen as a political "lightweight" and her leadership bid was never really taken seriously both within the party and without. But unlike Mr. Harper, people have a certain regard and warmth for her. She will undoubtedly grow in people's estimation but her first impression is likely to ensure that she will never be seriously perceived as leadership material for the LPC.

Here in Quebec, our party's spokesperson, Josée Verner, candidate in Louis-St-Laurent riding, is suffering from her own image problems. She too has long been regarded as a political neophyte. In an incredibly devastating personal attack on local radio, the former CPC candidate in the neighbouring riding of Louis-Hébert, Frédérick Têtu, accused Ms. Verner of trying to sabotage his campaign from start to finish and of repeatedly attempting to replace him as candidate after his selection. Ms. Verner denies the allegations. Once Ms. Verner took on Machiavellian overtones, her prospects of election to Parliament dimmed considerably. So much for the Conservative "star" candidate from Quebec.

A politician is only as good as his or her image. The road to campaign heartbreak is littered with the bodies of many a failed leader, or candidate, who just couldn't crack open a small place in the hearts of the electorate. Sadly, that is precisely why we will never successfully sell Stephen Harper to Canadians.

Those Horrible Ads.

2005-12-04T20:04:00.000-08:00

Do I have to go up to Ottawa and write those damned ads myself???

I) On Crime - This is the best of a bad lot. A lady evokes her concerns about drug dealers and gang members getting back on the streets and criminals not being deported. Mr. Harper says he will bring in minimum sentences for serious crimes and end house arrest. He says we'll make sure deported criminals actually leave the country. Mr. Harper does not go on to say that in concert with the provinces, that both levels of government will increase resources to rehabilitate convicted criminals, so they can change their lifestyle, and go on to be law-abiding productive members of society.

II) On Taxes - The interviewer says that Ottawa has billions of dollars in extra cash. Mr. Harper responds that the Liberal government has been overtaxing us for twelve (12) years. Then a woman says how about a tax cut that doesn't disappear after the election. Mr. Harper says working Canadians need a tax cut that they can see and count on. Then he explains how he will cut the GST from 7 to 5%. I've argued that the GST is the wrong cutting priority. However, I would have made an ad something like this: Mr. Harper is surrounded by his wife, Laureen and his two children. He says something like this -- Like many of you, my wife and children are more important to me than anything else in the world. I worry about their future and that of your family and your children. That's why our party is going to cut the GST from 7 to 5% to help working families get a break on their taxes. After all, shouldn't we be investing as much money as we can in our families?

III) On Accountability - The presenter says hundreds of millions of dollars go missing and no one is in jail. Mr. Harper responds, look who is in charge. He says they don't know right from wrong. A lady then asks how people get to Ottawa and no one can touch them. Mr. Harper says you have to change the people in charge, but you also have to change the system by passing his federal accountability plan to clean up government. I've made the case that the electorate has moved on. My ad would be something like this: I would only show visuals of the various presidents and directors-general of the federal Liberal Party (Quebec Wing) testifying before Gomery, with a voiceover of Mr. Harper on top of that. No other visuals to distract from the message that it was high-ranking Liberal party officials who were implicated in the sponsorship scandal. We aren't running against Chuck Guité and the other federal bureaucrats. We have to tag the Liberals in our ads and show how their officials were not held accountable for their actions by their own political party.

Finally, I would 86 that dreadful sign on the street. It immediately reminded me of an evangelical fellowship meeting with that type of sign on a church lawn to announce the date. That form of symbolism is bound to turn off many voters.

CPAC - SES Nightly Tracking Polls.

2005-12-04T18:35:00.000-08:00

Day 25 - The CPAC - SES Nightly Tracking Polls published since the beginning of December reveal a rather muddled political environment:

Dec. 1 Liberals = 37% Conservatives = 29% New Democrats = 15% Bloc Québécois = 14% Greens = 5%

Dec. 2 36% 31% 14% 14% 5%

Dec. 3 38% 29% 15% 14% 5%

Dec.4 36% 31% 14% 14% 5%

No party has established a strong beachhead so far. The Liberals are likely to form a government based on these numbers. The Conservatives can't seem to move beyond the low thirties thereby not as yet allowing them to enlarge their base of support. The other parties are stable but the New Democrats are below their recent peak. Some polls put them as high as 20%.

A Conservative Government Will Reduce Hospital Waiting Times.

2005-12-03T12:11:00.000-08:00

Day 24 - Paul Martin must be sweating: he says Stephen Harper has just had a death-bed conversion. Mr. Harper says a Conservative government will insist that provinces pay to send patients for treatment in the other provinces, or the U.S., if the provinces do not succeed in reducing waiting times to acceptable levels by the end of 2006. Finally, a baby step by the Conservatives in the right direction. Health care is by far the issue that most pre-occupies voters.

So much for a private, parallel system. No wonder Paul Martin remains nervous. Mr. Harper says the Canada Health Act must be respected. However, he does not rule out private delivery of public health care services nor would he close private clinics operating across Canada.

Will a Conservative government be ready to use the stick? Probably. Federal transfer payments to the provinces will have to be re-negotiated once the current funding formula expires. But is all this enough to swing large blocks of voters to the Conservatives? Probably not. Mr. Harper is making an error in not committing to increase federal funding to help the provinces finance waiting times reductions. The Liberals know this -- that is why their plan calls for further money on the table from Ottawa.

What a symbolic difference: they will be seen as putting their money where their mouth is, while our party will seek to force the provinces to put their money where our mouth is. Not a smart political strategy, in my estimation.

GST Tax Reduction Proves Harper's Desperation.

2005-12-02T04:09:00.000-08:00

Day 23 - So Stephen Harper says he's going to cut the Goods and Services Tax (GST) rate. Talk about being desperate for power. Mr. Harper is well aware that Canadians are still smarting over the GST -- they hated Brian Mulroney for introducing it but forgave Jean Chrétien for failing to scrap it. That GST dichotomy is highly instructive and offers a hint as to how voters will react on election day. It shows the propensity for the electorate to give the Liberals the benefit of the doubt while holding the Conservatives to a much more demanding standard.

Mr. Harper proposes, if elected, to cut the GST immediately to 6% and to further reduce it to 5% within five (5) years. He knows that cutting this consumption tax has some voter appeal but as an economist, he also is well aware, to reverse the famous John Crosbie quote, that it will only lead to "short-term gain for long-term pain". Federal tax revenues will take a tremendous hit as a result of this proposal. Savings and investment will be severely affected and the shortfall in revenue will have to be made up somewhere else -- on the backs of the taxpayer! Mr. Harper has chosen political theatre over substance. He would have been far more responsible if he had accelerated his plan for personal and business income tax reductions. Common sense dictates either one or the other. You can't reduce the GST rate and then have meaningful personal and business tax cuts. If you proceed with both, that is a recipe for a return to federal deficits.

Meanwhile, a new CTV/Globe and Mail poll undertaken by the Strategic Counsel suggests that Mr. Harper is in deep political trouble: 59% of respondents say that they view Mr. Harper "unfavourably", up nine points from last May. Mr. Martin, on the other hand, has gained ground. His unfavorable rating is down four percent to 54%. In the critical battleground of Ontario, Mr. Harper's negatives are at an astonishing 61% while Mr. Martin is viewed favourably by 57%.

That says it all. There goes the ball game. It's over for Stephen Harper.

Iceberg Ahead Just Waiting For Harper.

2005-11-29T20:46:00.000-08:00

An Environics poll conducted between November 21-25 has some extremely unsettling news for the Conservative Party. Only 31% of those questioned said that they preferred a minority government. 35% supported the idea just prior to the last election.

Someone better get Mr. Harper some tranquilizers. He is going to have a good reason to need them. The good ship Harper had better be wary of the "Majority" Iceberg. It can only mean very serious trouble for him on election night.

Harper Just Had To Do It, He Couldn't Help Himself.

2005-11-29T20:31:00.000-08:00

Day 20 - Well, it only took one (1) day...now it's back to the old Stephen Harper. When questioned by reporters today, Mr. Harper confirmed that a Conservative government will proceed with a "free vote" in Parliament on returning to the traditional definition of marriage. Why can't he simply leave well enough alone ? ? ? This highly contentious issue is now settled law in Canada. What on earth possessed him to reopen this can of worms?

Anyone with a smidgen of common sense would have stayed well clear of this question. This will do tremendous damage to the Conservative campaign. Paul Martin is suddenly all smiles. No wonder. Mr. Harper has played right into his hands. Even the most bumbling imbecile knows that if we form the government that such a vote will not be "free" in practice. Our MPs will vote massively against the status quo and we will return to the traditional definition of marriage. Watch for a voter backlash as a result of this tremendous blunder.

Harper makes O'Dowd Eat Crow.

2005-11-28T23:33:00.000-08:00

Day 19 - The government fell tonight. The election campaign is now on. As painful as it is for me to admit it, Stephen Harper has made a monkey out of me. I was expecting his usual speech -- chock full of "corruption", "organized crime", "no moral authority to govern" and of course, "when I'm prime minister." I heard none of those phrases tonight. Mr. Harper did not blow it, much to my surprise.

Instead, Mr. Harper offered a speech which focused on a "positive vision for the future" and wondered whether Canadians are better off than they were 12 years ago when the Liberals came to power. Small baby steps in the right direction. We'll see how it goes from here.

Meanwhile, Pollara has released a poll tonight which shows the Liberals leading with 36%, the Conservatives at 31%, the New Democrats at 16% and the Bloc Québécois at 14%. 17% of voters remain undecided. The Liberals are far ahead in the Atlantic Provinces (52-30), and Ontario (42-38). The Conservatives have a big lead on the Prairies (52-29) and a narrow one in British Columbia (31-30) while the Bloc Québécois is far ahead of the Liberals in Quebec (60-29).

Harper Will Get Zippo in Quebec.

2005-11-27T20:00:00.000-08:00

Day 18 - One day away from the likely fall of the Martin government and all we get from Quebec Conservatives is meaningless platitudes. Josée Verner, Party spokesperson and candidate in Louis-St-Laurent riding told the Canadian Press that: "There is no one who can say that this government still has the moral authority to govern." Ms. Verner says that the party is hoping to make gains in the wake of the sponsorship scandal and the first Gomery Report.

Is this our party's brilliant electoral strategy for Quebec? Where is the focus on the deficiencies of the Bloc Québécois? Where are the commitments to Quebec voters that will allow them to switch their votes to the Conservatives? Excuse the pun - where is the "red meat" that will lure them to support the CPC? No talk of further federal-provincial decentralization. No talk of administrative agreements that a Conservative government would sign with the federalist provincial government, led by a former PCC leader. What is wrong with these people? They are waiting for voters to fall into our lap from heaven. What a colossal joke. No surprise that the NDP has managed to pass us in many polls. It's no small wonder that I will be sitting out this election campaign. With collective talent like this, and rudderless direction from the Office of the Leader of the Opposition, why even bother trying in Quebec??? It is quite simply, a waste of time and energy.

Ekos Poll.

2005-11-26T10:42:00.000-08:00

Bourque has just posted the latest Ekos poll:

Liberals: 38.7%

Conservatives: 29.4%

New Democrats: 16.9%

Bloc Québécois: 10.6%

Greens: 3.9%

This poll is cause for pause. Only time will tell whether this is a beginning of a trend, or a rogue poll.

Harper's Mouth is the Instrument of his Demise.

2005-11-26T10:25:00.000-08:00

Day 17 - Those Liberals, what a bunch of big spenders. Buying votes with the taxpayers' money. This pisses off the electorate: the latest Ipsos-Reid poll found the LPC down 2 points at 34% while the CPC is up three at 30%. The NDP is still at 16% while the BQ is up two points to 15%. The Green Party is down one percent at 5%. The Liberal pre-election strategy seems to be backfiring. Under normal circumstances, this would be a great opportunity for the Conservative Party. It could conceivably create a wave of momentum that would propel our leader into office.

But wouldn't you know it. Stephen Harper has a recurring case of "foot-in-mouth" disease. When he tabled the motion of non-confidence in the House of Commons on Thursday, he said this:

"If I belonged to an organization and led an organization that was found to have been involved in a massive corruption ring using organized crime to defraud taxpayers, I cannot understand why anyone found in that position would want to be associated with that organization."

Naturally, from the Prime Minister, on down, the Liberals are demanding an apology and quite characteristically, Mr. Harper is refusing to give one. Shades of the last election campaign when Mr. Harper linked child pornography to the government, leaving the impression with voters that Mr. Martin was "soft" on child pornography. Last year's comment went a long way toward cementing doubts in electors' minds about Mr. Harper's fitness to serve as prime minister.

Now here we go again. Expect Conservative poll numbers to drop in the coming weeks -- Mr. Harper would be wise to keep his mouth shut. Any further repetition of this type of comment will do for the Liberals, what they seem to be unable to do for themselves -- elect a Liberal majority government.

The Ontario Mind-set.

2005-11-24T23:36:00.000-08:00

Day 15 - Battleground Ontario will once again choose which party will form our next government. Mr. Harper argues that Liberal corruption will propel the CPC into office. On the other hand, Mr. Martin maintains that Mr. Harper is simply not on the same page with a majority of Canadians. How will Ontario electors settle the issue?

In a recent speech, journalist Chantal Hébert made an interesting point: she says that voters are wary of Stephen Harper because they fear he has the same agenda as the infamous Harris government. Mr. Harris' "Common Sense Revolution" left a bitter taste with most Ontarians. This distrust is now being projected on Mr. Harper. Unless he can convince Ontarians that he intends to follow a Conservative "third-way", he is unlikely to hold the seats he has in the province. Watch for a substantial reduction of Conservative MPs elected by Ontario voters.

Ralph, Stephen says Thanks A Lot!

2005-11-23T22:34:00.000-08:00

Day 14 - There goes "The Mouth that Roared", again! Alberta Premier Ralph Klein seems to have a God-given talent for sticking it to Stephen Harper just as our leader is most vulnerable in the eyes of the electorate. Mr. Klein said on Wednesday that he expects to see the Liberals returned with a minority government. He says that Mr. Harper is seen by voters in Ontario as being "too much on the right".

Fits and hemorrhages raged across the federal Conservative landscape subsequent to Mr. Klein's remarks. Deputy Conservative Leader Peter MacKay qualified his comments as "not helpful" and prescribed a dose of "duct tape" for the indiscreet premier.

None of this comes as any surprise to any non-comatose observer of the political scene. Talk about stating the obvious. Moderate mainstream voters simply cannot relate to Mr. Harper. They don't like where he stands on the issues and are loath to support our party as a result. Ralph Klein is an honest man -- perhaps too candid for Mr. Harper's purposes. He only said out loud what everyone else is thinking. The ride on the campaign bus should be an interesting one -- I would kill to have the ability to sell tickets. Perhaps this upcoming campaign should be christened as "Harper's Folly"...

Brave Conservative Soldiers Prepare to Fall on Their Swords.

2005-11-22T22:36:00.000-08:00

Day 13 - We Conservatives are a noble bunch. Even when we know that the cause is hopeless and that we are beat before we've started, our top guns are preparing to join the fray alongside our leader. Stephen Harper will have the company of Premiers Ralph Klein and Bernard Lord on the campaign trail. Other high-ranking Conservatives, such as Senators Pierre-Claude Nolin and Hugh Segal, will be on the bus with Mr. Harper to lend their expertise.

Well intentioned men all. But some things quite simply are not salvageable. Mr. Harper's leadership is one of them. The man is chafing at the bit and will table a non-confidence motion on Thursday with the vote expected the following Monday. Down the Martin Liberals will go. This is sheer madness. Anyone with the slightest bit of sense will tell you that you don't risk all when your party is not in an ascending phase. We won't peak too soon, like last time. In short, our national numbers are range bound and give no indication of momentum. One cannot help but seriously question Mr. Harper's capacity for reasoned judgment. He is pulling the plug on himself, and worse yet, on our party. It will be all down hill from here. In the end, our brave Conservative soldiers will be humiliated and honour will leave them with no alternative but to collectively fall on their swords. Conservatives will have paid their dues with nothing to show for it in return.

Stephen Harper: You're no Ariel Sharon.

2005-11-21T13:11:00.000-08:00

Day 12 - Yesterday, a political earthquake occurred in the Middle East. Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon broke with the Likud Party and will form his own party to contest the next Israeli elections. Mr. Sharon, a founding member of the Likud, chose to do so when he realized that Likud was moving further right and likely to fall into the hands of right-wing political extremists.

Too bad our leader, Stephen Harper isn't paying attention. It is patently obvious to every observer of the Canadian political scene that our party is in exactly the same predicament -- it has drifted far too much to the right. A majority of voters have been alienated in the process and that will be amply demonstrated before our eyes as we watch the results come in on election night. Mr. Harper could use a dose of this clear thinking. He has failed to transform the CPC into an electable political party. Political destiny seems to have determined that Mr. Harper, unlike Mr. Sharon, will not have a successful political rebirth on the campaign trail.

The Battle of the Tax Cuts.

2005-11-20T16:45:00.000-08:00

Day 11 - The Liberals are planning to bring in their personal tax cuts as early as tomorrow. Finance Minister Ralph Goodale's tax reduction plan will be tabled before the House and likely will be adopted with Liberal, NDP and BQ support. No word on how our party will vote.

Once again, Mr. Harper is being reactive rather than pro-active. Mr. Martin comes up with a tax package. Mr. Harper says "me too". Conservative House Leader Jay Hill said on Friday that we will have our own proposal very soon. Mr. Hill says it will be up to the voters to choose the better tax plan.

Tax reduction has long been a tenet of both political parties. But in any race to the finish, what only matters in the end is who came in first. The Liberals will get the credit: they will be perceived as caring about individual Canadians and their families. We, on the other hand, will be seen as desperate "copycats" who are only doing this to buy votes. A familiar pattern? The Liberals have a talent for wearing the white cowboy hat. We are still stuck in neutral, wearing the black one.

Brison goes on the Attack Against Harper.

2005-11-19T13:51:00.000-08:00

Day 10 - Preview of the election campaign. Public Works Minister Scott Brison went on the offensive yesterday in a speech before the Rotary Club in Toronto. He attacked Mr. Harper, calling him a socially conservative dinosaur who would roll back Charter and Gay rights. Mr. Harper will have quite a job in attempting to refute those charges.

Then came the gem as Mr. Brison harked back to all those nasty positions taken by the National Citizens Coalition and its then president, Stephen Harper: resistance to the public health care system, difficulties with bilingualism, charter rights and multiculturalism. No word from Mr. Harper on when he will put those positions into context as they relate to his present stand on those issues as leader of our party. Mr. Harper seems willing to allow the Liberals to crucify him, and by extension our party, based on positions taken by him in a previous incarnation. Mr. Harper had better wake up and fast.

Can't you see it? Mr. Martin raising the false canard of abortion in the campaign -- in spite of the fact that our party at its Montreal convention chose to adopt, quite sensibly, "no position" on abortion. The Liberals will go out of their way to paint us as extremists. They will never let such a little detail or inconvenience as the facts stand in their way. Mr. Harper has let himself and the party wide open as it relates to charter rights in general and gay rights in particular. We will all pay the heavy electoral price in the next election for his positions.

Decima Confirms What We All Know - Harper's Goose Is Cooked.

2005-11-17T21:10:00.000-08:00

Day 8 - Voter, who do you hate more? Paul Martin and his tired government or Stephen Harper and his "hidden agenda"???

The next federal election will be decided on exactly those questions. Voters will choose, as Joe Clark would say, "the devil you know rather than the devil you don't." A recent Decima survey confirms this trend: both possibilities produce respectable numbers but this poll is the kiss of death for Mr. Harper and our party: why did Willy Sutton rob banks? Because that is where the money is. Where are the seats? -- Ontario and Quebec. Most of these are in urban areas. In Ontario, 40% of voters feared a Conservative government led by Mr. Harper. Ditto for Atlantic Canada. In Quebec, more people want to turf out the Liberals but they won't be voting for the CPC. The BQ is likely to get at least sixty (60) seats. BC is a wash on this issue while the Prairies are still Harper territory. In short, we can forget Ontario, Quebec and Atlantic Canada. BC will be a horse race between all three parties. Mr. Harper will sweep Alberta but also do well in Saskatchewan. Less so in Manitoba.

Mr. Harper instills fear in the electorate and Mr. Martin takes great pleasure in propagating it! Mr. Harper is a Liberal's best friend, their secret weapon. It just doesn't get any better than that. Mr. Martin must be extremely grateful for his incredible good fortune.

Harper in Danger of Causing Layton to Go Overboard.

2005-11-16T21:58:00.000-08:00

Day Seven - Is Mr. Harper crazy? What is going on here? Will our party's actions lead to an NDP defection? Tomorrow is "D-Day". Mr. Layton will present a motion before the House calling on the government to accept the opposition timetable for an election. Mr. Martin will refuse.

Mr. Layton has made it clear that he wants to see at least four (4) bills pass in the Commons before a non-confidence motion is laid before MPs. He also does not want to disrupt the upcoming First Ministers' Meeting with First Nations Leaders which will take place on November 24th. All opposition parties have agreed-in-principle to present the non-confidence motion on November 28th.

Any attempt to move up this timetable will lead to a fracturing of the Gang of Three and the complete ridicule of the party responsible for the collapse of the common front. This outcome will not only make Mr. Harper look like a fool, it will peg the CPC as totally incompetent. Our party will be seen as the political laughing stock in Ottawa. Let's hope that the rumours are false. We don't need to once again shoot ourselves in the foot just before an election.

The Minority Shuffle.

2005-11-15T22:53:00.000-08:00

Day Six - The more I think about it, the more I become convinced that the pending federal election is much ado about nothing. It is a mere shuffling of the deck chairs on the RMS Titanic.

On election night, we will go from a Liberal minority to a Liberal government. If it is a majority, that will mean that Mr. Harper is on borrowed time with our party. On the otherhand, if voters elect a Liberal minority, convention wisdom would seem to suggest that Stephen Harper will have some company. I don't see how Mr. Martin could stay on for long under such circumstances.

Then the real fun begins -- which party can pick the better leader? Will a new CPC leader be able to vanquish the LPC after a couple of years? Or vice versa? How will the NDP and BQ fare? As Mr. Chrétien might say: "fasten your seat belts, it's going to be one hell of a ride!"

He Who is Without the Moral Authority to Govern Says No.

2005-11-14T22:08:00.000-08:00

Day Five - Prime Minister Martin refused to accept the Opposition's election scenario today. What a surprise. This leaves the Opposition parties with no alternative but to schedule a Non-Confidence Motion on either November 22nd or 24th. The government may fall but it will be a wild card election if the Opposition is successful.

Mr. Harper says that the Liberals have lost the Moral Authority to Govern. He may think so, but even the NDP can't bring themselves to go that far. Polls also tend to dispute the Conservatives' conclusion. If Mr. Harper thinks that this argument will propel our party into power, he is sadly mistaken.

The Opposition Strategy is a No-Win For Harper.

2005-11-13T18:38:00.000-08:00

The Three Big Boys have decided to roll the dice. In an utterly stupid and inconsequential manner, they are telling the Liberals to take our package -- or else risk the consequences. The Liberals must be laughing themselves silly.

The Opposition parties propose that the NDP use a Conservative opposition day (probably on Tuesday) to introduce a motion asking Martin to accept a January election call. The vote would take place in February. If the Liberals do not agree, a non-confidence motion will be tabled later this month. This is idiocy of the highest order -- you can't bluff your way into an election. They want Paul Martin to take responsibility for an election that he opposes! Welcome to La La Land...

Martin will stick to his commitment of calling an election within thirty (30) days of the release of the second Gomery Report. That will squarely put the onus for an election where it belongs - on the opposition. At that point, a non-confidence motion becomes a highly risky strategy, particularly for Mr. Harper, the gentleman who will wear the authorship of such a motion. The electorate is at best, lukewarm about Mr. Harper. His poll numbers are stable to drifting lower. He has everything to lose and nothing to gain. Most voters will not vote for the CPC as long as Stephen Harper is the leader. In addition, those who disapprove of an election, provoked by the opposition, will primarily take it out on his party.

Mr. Layton is also taking a risk -- will his record newly found popularity start to evaporate now that he has thrown his lot in with the other bad boys? As his poll numbers begin to shift, will he have second thoughts? In addition, he too could be on the receiving end of a voter backlash in an election campaign. Jack Layton is taking quite a gamble. I wonder what the ghost of David Lewis would advise. Somewhere, Pierre Trudeau must be smiling.

Mr. Harper has sealed his fate. He is in a no-win situation. This is the beginning of the end, not the end of the beginning, of his leadership. He will proudly wear this badge of honour straight to electoral defeat.

Harper's Intolerance is Unacceptable.

2005-11-13T00:37:00.000-08:00

Day Four - I'm shocked. Mr. Harper does not resonate with women and young people. I wonder why? Could it possibly have to do with his stubborn streak? One example: same-sex marriage. Most Canadians have turned the page and recognized that discrimination in regard to the right to marry is simply not acceptable. This is settled law.

But not Stephen Harper -- he is still insisting that Parliament can adopt a definition of marriage that will stipulate that only a man and a woman can be lawfully wed in Canada. Full speed ahead and damn the torpedoes, the Charter of Rights and Freedoms, the Supreme Court of Canada and any other inconvenience.

Surely Mr. Harper recognizes that he will have to invoke the notwithstanding clause to get around the courts. This is precisely why he is unfit to serve as prime minister. A notwithstanding clause must be used sparingly by all orders of government. It is inconceivable that it could be used to deny any group or individual what would otherwise be a charter-protected right. Mr. Harper's conduct is shameful. Fortunately for Canada, most Canadians are not willing to play his game. He is quite simply on the wrong side of this issue, and ultimately, on the wrong side of history.

Canadians want a prime minister who is better than themselves, more generous in spirit and in fact, more tolerant and a champion of our charter. Regrettably, Mr. Harper has chosen not to be that person. The electorate is bound to confirm his decision.

Remembrance Day 2005.

2005-11-12T18:31:00.000-08:00

Day Three - A group of Conservatives gathered yesterday to mark Remembrance Day. During this solemn occasion, a minute of silence was observed to remember those who made the ultimate sacrifice. Veterans of all wars were also in our thoughts.

We sang O Canada and saluted our veterans. At the end of the ceremony, to lighten the mood, a cake was brought out. A Canadian flag and blue candles adorned it. To the surprise and amusement of all, a white chocolate slab covered in brown lettering was also on display. It read: " Harper Dehors!" The pièce de résistance to end a thoughtful evening.

Harper's Chaouilli Land Mine in Quebec.

2005-11-11T03:41:00.000-08:00

Day Two - Last June, the Supreme Court of Canada ruled that private health insurance could be used to pay for public services provided under Medicare in Quebec. That practice had been banned by the Quebec Government prior to the ruling. The court said that Quebecers were entitled in response to long waiting lists to use private care and that denial of that possibility violated patients' rights under the Quebec Charter of Rights.

Two months later, in response to a request from the federal and Quebec governments, the judgment was suspended for one year to allow Quebec to modify its legislation to bring it into line with the ruling.

Stephen Harper is long on record as being in favour of the possibility of increased "private options" as it relates to the dispensing of health care services. Allowing increasing private accessibility, particularly when it contravenes the express wishes of a provincial government and by extension the people of a given province, is like playing with political dynamite.

Mr. Harper should be denouncing private initiatives without the consent of provincial governments. As long as provincial governments respect the principles outlined in the Canada Health Act, there is no basis for further intervention into what is clearly provincial jurisdiction. Even tacit support by Mr. Harper of privatization creep into health care is like waving a red flag in front of a Quebec bull. So much for party efforts to increase our footprint in the province. We will no longer be politically relevant in Quebec if Mr. Harper does not repudiate federal intervention into provincial jurisdiction. Mr. Harper promised in the past to respect the division of powers. His fondness for private health services puts him squarely between a rock and a hard place.

Harper's Path Toward the Slaughterhouse

2005-11-10T09:44:00.000-08:00

The Léger Poll was released today. It shows support for the Liberals at 34%. The Conservatives are backed by 26% while the NDP and Bloc québécois are respectively at 18 and 11%. This contrasts with the Strategic Counsel poll, taken on the weekend. It showed the LPC at 35%, CPC at 28%, NDP at 16% and BQ at 13%.

All parties continue to drop with the exception of the NDP. It continues to gain ground. The electorate is sending us a message, loud and clear. Too bad no one in our party seems to be listening...

Welcome.

2005-11-10T02:59:00.000-08:00

Welcome to Day One of our long, slow, painful trek toward political oblivion. Our poor Conservative Party, a helpless pawn, forced to submit to the will and the whims of a leader, and those surrounding him in the Office of the Leader of the Opposition, who are hell bent on hanging on until the ignominious end.

Our own version of "Pride and Prejudice" -- just ask any Canadian in the street what he or she thinks of the present incarnation of our party -- not to mention its leader. Stephen Harper is a right-wing social conservative: the perfect formula for electoral disaster.

Many Canadians view him as a pig in a poke. They simply aren't buying what Mr. Harper is selling. They won't even pony up for ice cream, even when the chief provincial organizer is paying!

It would be laughable, if it wasn't so sad. A once proud and distinguished party reduced to a quivering mass of hesitant Conservatives, many in rose-coloured glasses, who, for the most part, haven't got the guts to stand up and be counted. The membership put Mr. Harper in his job -- like all failed CEOs, Mr. Harper richly deserves to get the boot from his stakeholders. Will members rise up in righteous indignation and give the leader his walking papers? If past conduct is any indication, probably not.

In the end, Conservatives will get what they deserve. I, for one, think we deserve a lot better than the electoral shaft.