Stand Up For Canada Means Harper Will Blow It Again.

Day 73 - Stephen Harper is campaigning hard in the dying days of this campaign. But Mr. Harper will not win this election for primarily two (2) reasons: his mind numbing error in stating that the Liberal Senate, "Liberal" public service and Liberal-appointed judges would act as a natural check on his incoming government. He is basically telling voters to take a chance on him because others will ensure that he cannot implement his political agenda! Secondly, Mr. Harper's failure to join Mr. Martin in eliminating the future use of the notwithstanding clause as it relates to Charter rights.

Prediction time: Nationally, factoring in the 10% who are undecided, the Conservatives will get 39% of the vote, the Liberals 37% and the New Democrats 16%. In Ontario, where 14% of voters are undecided, the LPC will get 42%, the CPC 38% and the NDP 29%. This will allow the Liberals to get enough Ontario seats to form a minority government. In Quebec, the undecided are pegged at 21%. The Bloc Québécois could receive up to 60%, the Conservatives 31% and the Liberals 17%. The CPC will finish a strong second in a handful of ridings but will not take a seat in Quebec.

Harper Makes Three Mistakes In One Day.

Day 60 - Yesterday was not exactly Stephen Harper's best campaign day. With the exception of the latest Ekos poll which puts the CPC six points ahead, the other polls indicate that this race is a "statistical" tie.

Mistake number one: Mr. Harper said he would repeal the recently passed Liberal tax cuts for low and middle income Canadians if he forms a government. Now that's a headline only a Liberal can love. He says our tax cuts are bigger but then fails to unveil our tax package. Strategists claim it will come next week because it has to be properly costed! If that is indeed the case, why did Mr. Harper comment on the Liberal tax cuts? Couldn't he see what impression he would leave with the voters? The tax cuts proposal should be made public NOW to contain the political damage.

Mistake number two: When recently asked if he felt frustrated that the Conservatives seem unlikely to form a majority government, Mr. Harper responded that Canadians had before them a variety of electoral options, or as he said, "any range of outcome is possible". In other words, he was suggesting that a majority was a possibility. Again, a fundamental error. The Liberals will do everything they can to promote a stampede effect to "stop Harper". Mr. Harper should have said that he hoped Canadians would give him an electoral mandate to form the next government and left it at that.

Mistake number three: Option Canada: a gift from the Chrétien wing of the Liberal Party. Over 4.8 million dollars was spent by the subsidiary of the Council on Canadian Unity on Quebec referendum activities in 1995. It is alleged that roughly $300,000 remains unaccounted for. The RCMP has confirmed that it is on a "fact-finding" mission but that they have not begun a formal investigation.

The Quebec Directeur général des élections was forced to abandon their initial investigation when the Supreme Court ruled that Option Canada was not required to respond to their request for information. One presumes that Option Canada was either headquartered outside Quebec or was beyond the powers reserved under provincial jurisdiction. In spite of this, the provincial organization has once again opened an investigation.

Mr. Harper should be demanding that Elections Canada look into this. Quite obviously, if provincial electoral officials do not have jurisdiction, Elections Canada has the authority to look into how this federal money was spent during the Quebec referendum campaign. He should be writing the Chief Electoral Officer, Jean-Pierre Kingsley, to insist that an investigation be initiated as soon as possible.

The Race Tightens.

Day 53 - It's Déjà-Vu all over again... Three weeks from the finish line and the race has tightened. No surprise there. Just think back to the last election. The latest CPAC - SES Nightly Tracking Poll puts the Liberals at 35%, the Conservatives right behind with 34% and the New Democrats at 14%. The Bloc Québécois is supported by 13% and the Green Party by 5% of respondents.

Meanwhile, a Decima Poll shows the LPC with 32%, the CPC with 30% while the NDP is pegged at 18% and the BQ at 14%. The Liberal lead in Ontario has shrunk to 4 points, 40 - 36% over the Conservatives.

It remains to be seen whether the RCMP Income Trust investigation will gain traction. Also look for very large proposed tax cuts from our party, probably in the coming week. If they are too heavily weighted in favour of corporate tax cuts, they will work against Mr. Harper's campaign. Can't wait to see what kind of rabbit we will pull out of the hat.

NEWSFLASH: Harper To Take London, Ontario By Storm!

Day 39 - Poor Stephen Harper. His campaign is turning into a political joke. He talks of forming a minority government -- totally oblivious to the fact that our party hasn't a hope in hell of forming the next government. Sure, Mr. Harper can legitimately say that we are making inroads in Ontario. Our problem is that we are taking southwestern Ontario by storm. The rest of Ontario, not to mention most of the rest of the country, wants absolutely nothing to do with Mr. Harper and his policies. We will no doubt increase our vote and perhaps our seats in Alberta, Saskatchewan and Manitoba but that is about it. British Columbia is lost to us and Quebec was never within our reach. We will fail to win a single seat there. The Liberals have Atlantic Canada locked up.

Mr. Harper said recently on his campaign plane that "you can be principled without being stupid". He should really take his own advice. He trotted out the same-sex marriage issue at the start of the campaign and it has persistently dogged him ever since. It has turned Paul Martin into the champion of the Charter of Rights and Freedoms and the protector of minority rights. Nice job Mr. Harper. Mr. Martin now has the audacity to say that Mr. Harper is unfit to be prime minister. Too bad most Canadians agree with that perception.

Mr. Harper will argue that a Léger/Sun Media poll revealed that 55% of Canadians support a free-vote on the traditional definition of marriage. Big deal. You can't turn back the clock politically. Even if we formed a government, which is almost an impossibility, the Supreme Court would never let such a vote stand. Mr. Harper would have to invoke the notwithstanding clause to get his way. His pledge in both language debates that he would not do so would quickly fall by the wayside.

But, we will never get there. In that same poll, 86% of respondents said that the marriage question will not change how they will vote on January 23rd. That is very bad news for Mr. Harper. He may have held his own in the first English-language debate but he blew the first French-language debate big time. How can one expect Quebecers and other francophones to relate to, much less vote for a man who twice had to tell the moderator that he did not understand the question! I can just picture Lawrence Cannon and Josée Verner each taking a bathroom break to vomit.

Mr. Harper may well win big in the Ontario "bible-belt" but he hasn't got a prayer in British Columbia, Quebec, the Atlantic Provinces or the rest of Ontario. Might as well have the staff at Stornoway start the packing right away...

Christmas Comes Early for the Liberal Party of Canada.

Day 32 - What a simply wonderful early Christmas present for the Liberals. Mike King is reporting on the Hounds of War Blog that campaign genius Tom Flanagan has once again come on board in an attempt to "right" the Conservative ship. That should be just about enough to sink us for good. Apparently, Mr. Flanagan is already quarreling with campaign co-chair John Reynolds and he just crossed the threshold.

Why Mr. Harper, the epitome of Darth Vader, has chosen the genuine article to take over strategy is beyond me. Quite obviously, Stephen Harper has learned nothing since he became leader of our party. Mr. Harper may scare some people. Mr. Flanagan terrifies most people. This will be one hell of a Conservative rout. Not even "income trusts" can save Mr. Harper now.

First Impressions Can Be Deadly.

Day 28 - The curse of first impressions. In political life, one can make the argument that if a politician debuts on the national stage and strike a sour note, that bad impression is likely to haunt him or her for the rest of their political career. Take Joe Clark as an example. Widely ridiculed as "Joe Who" when he was first chosen leader of the Progressive Conservatives, Mr. Clark went on to earn the moniker of elder political statesman and decent fellow. However, that initial impression of him stuck like glue in the minds of many Canadians. He was widely perceived as having won both English-language debates but voters nonetheless re-elected Jean Chrétien in the 2000 election.

Take the case of Stephen Harper -- Canada's "Angry Man". Voters don't like him, have no desire to warm up to him and can't for the life of them bring themselves to vote for him or our party. They can try as hard as they want to make Mr. Harper warm and fuzzy but it just won't work in the end. Put simply, Mr. Harper rubs most voters the wrong way. They can't relate to him and have no confidence in him or his ideas. Mr. Harper has suffered from high negatives since the beginning of his Alliance Party leadership. Canadians may come to respect him but they will never love Mr. Harper, the way they adored (and hated) those two (2) charismatic and polarizing figures Pierre Trudeau and Brian Mulroney.

Belinda Stronach is another perfect example. She launched an attack on Mr. Harper yesterday. She says Mr. Harper is a political opportunist who put Canadian unity in danger by going to any lengths to sink the then Liberal minority government. Ms. Stronach argues that Mr. Harper only cares about grabbing power. Ms. Stronach is another politician who made a dubious first impression with the Canadian people. (Full disclosure: I supported Ms. Stronach's leadership bid for leader of the CPC.) Ms. Stronach was seen as a political "lightweight" and her leadership bid was never really taken seriously both within the party and without. But unlike Mr. Harper, people have a certain regard and warmth for her. She will undoubtedly grow in people's estimation but her first impression is likely to ensure that she will never be seriously perceived as leadership material for the LPC.

Here in Quebec, our party's spokesperson, Josée Verner, candidate in Louis-St-Laurent riding, is suffering from her own image problems. She too has long been regarded as a political neophyte. In an incredibly devastating personal attack on local radio, the former CPC candidate in the neighbouring riding of Louis-Hébert, Frédérick Têtu, accused Ms. Verner of trying to sabotage his campaign from start to finish and of repeatedly attempting to replace him as candidate after his selection. Ms. Verner denies the allegations. Once Ms. Verner took on Machiavellian overtones, her prospects of election to Parliament dimmed considerably. So much for the Conservative "star" candidate from Quebec.

A politician is only as good as his or her image. The road to campaign heartbreak is littered with the bodies of many a failed leader, or candidate, who just couldn't crack open a small place in the hearts of the electorate. Sadly, that is precisely why we will never successfully sell Stephen Harper to Canadians.

Those Horrible Ads.

Do I have to go up to Ottawa and write those damned ads myself???

I) On Crime - This is the best of a bad lot. A lady evokes her concerns about drug dealers and gang members getting back on the streets and criminals not being deported. Mr. Harper says he will bring in minimum sentences for serious crimes and end house arrest. He says we'll make sure deported criminals actually leave the country. Mr. Harper does not go on to say that in concert with the provinces, that both levels of government will increase resources to rehabilitate convicted criminals, so they can change their lifestyle, and go on to be law-abiding productive members of society.

II) On Taxes - The interviewer says that Ottawa has billions of dollars in extra cash. Mr. Harper responds that the Liberal government has been overtaxing us for twelve (12) years. Then a woman says how about a tax cut that doesn't disappear after the election. Mr. Harper says working Canadians need a tax cut that they can see and count on. Then he explains how he will cut the GST from 7 to 5%. I've argued that the GST is the wrong cutting priority. However, I would have made an ad something like this: Mr. Harper is surrounded by his wife, Laureen and his two children. He says something like this -- Like many of you, my wife and children are more important to me than anything else in the world. I worry about their future and that of your family and your children. That's why our party is going to cut the GST from 7 to 5% to help working families get a break on their taxes. After all, shouldn't we be investing as much money as we can in our families?

III) On Accountability - The presenter says hundreds of millions of dollars go missing and no one is in jail. Mr. Harper responds, look who is in charge. He says they don't know right from wrong. A lady then asks how people get to Ottawa and no one can touch them. Mr. Harper says you have to change the people in charge, but you also have to change the system by passing his federal accountability plan to clean up government. I've made the case that the electorate has moved on. My ad would be something like this: I would only show visuals of the various presidents and directors-general of the federal Liberal Party (Quebec Wing) testifying before Gomery, with a voiceover of Mr. Harper on top of that. No other visuals to distract from the message that it was high-ranking Liberal party officials who were implicated in the sponsorship scandal. We aren't running against Chuck Guité and the other federal bureaucrats. We have to tag the Liberals in our ads and show how their officials were not held accountable for their actions by their own political party.

Finally, I would 86 that dreadful sign on the street. It immediately reminded me of an evangelical fellowship meeting with that type of sign on a church lawn to announce the date. That form of symbolism is bound to turn off many voters.

CPAC - SES Nightly Tracking Polls.

Day 25 - The CPAC - SES Nightly Tracking Polls published since the beginning of December reveal a rather muddled political environment:

Dec. 1 Liberals = 37% Conservatives = 29% New Democrats = 15% Bloc Québécois = 14% Greens = 5%

Dec. 2 36% 31% 14% 14% 5%

Dec. 3 38% 29% 15% 14% 5%

Dec.4 36% 31% 14% 14% 5%


No party has established a strong beachhead so far. The Liberals are likely to form a government based on these numbers. The Conservatives can't seem to move beyond the low thirties thereby not as yet allowing them to enlarge their base of support. The other parties are stable but the New Democrats are below their recent peak. Some polls put them as high as 20%.